Oregon has multiple paths to cutting emissions nearly in half by 2030
Oregon has multiple paths to cutting emissions nearly in half by 2030
Client
Oregon Department of Energy, State of Oregon
Population
4,200,000 (2020)
Schedule
2021–2023
The Problem
Oregon has long been a national leader in climate action, the first state to eliminate coal from its electricity mix and an early mover on transportation electrification. But despite this progress, the state was 26% over its 2020 emissions target. The Oregon Department of Energy needed rigorous analysis to chart a faster, more ambitious path to its updated goals.
The Problem
How can a climate leader accelerate its progress and cut emissions nearly in half within a decade?
61M
metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions in Oregon (2021)
45%
emissions reduction required below 1990 levels by 2035
The Solution
SSG built a customized, county-level energy and emissions model for Oregon and found that, despite emissions trending in the wrong direction, the state was on track to meet its 2035 target through 15 existing programs and regulations. SSG then identified and analyzed an additional 35 emission reduction actions across buildings, transportation, energy, and industry, giving the Oregon Legislature two evidence-backed pathways to accelerate that goal by five years.
SSG led stakeholder engagement with nine state agencies and 95 public participants to develop and refine the list of potential actions. SSG then modeled two scenarios sharing a core set of 23 common actions, plus 12 additional actions unique to each pathway: an Electrification Scenario and a Hybrid Scenario incorporating alternative fuel options. The analysis went beyond traditional least-cost methods, to quantify health, equity, and jobs co-benefits for each action to help decision-makers weigh the full value of Oregon’s climate investments.
The Outcome
SSG’s modeling showed Oregon that:
$47B
net financial benefit from implementing the identified actions
283k+
additional net job-years created through 2050
$74B+
in health savings to Oregonians by 2050
*as compared to a business-as-usual scenario, see Oregon TIGHGER Project Report, March 2023.
Outcome
Key Takeaways
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