Our Work

Hawaiʻi’s path to net-negative emissions by 2045

Hawaiʻi Climate Action Pathways

Client

Hawaiʻi Department of Land and Natural Resources

Population

1,441,000

Schedule

2023-2025

The Problem

Hawaiʻi was the first US state to commit to net-negative emissions by 2045. To move from ambition to action, the state needed precise answers on what each climate measure would deliver, cost, and save.

The Problem

What will it take for Hawaiʻi to reach net-negative emissions by 2045?

20.3M

metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions statewide (2022)

50%

emissions reduction required below 2005 levels by 2030

The Solution

SSG quantified the emissions reduction potential, implementation costs, and savings of 36 climate measures, translating the state’s goals into specific, sector-by-sector pathways to implementation for each of Hawai’i’s islands.

SSG projected business-as-usual emissions, analyzed a carbon price rising to $150 per ton by 2045, and tested the pathway under alternate scenarios reflecting uncertainty in oil prices, renewable energy deployment, and EV adoption. Spatial analysis mapped rooftop solar potential and tree-planting suitability against low-income and disadvantaged communities, identifying where climate investments deliver the greatest equity benefits.

The Outcome

SSG’s analysis quantified:

36

climate measures assessed

$12.9B

carbon pricing revenue to fund climate action by 2045

$28.8B

savings from implementing climate measures*

*Reductions relative to a business-as-usual scenario.

Outcome

Key Takeaways

Equity mapped to target climate action where it’s needed most.

Hawaiʻi’s low-income and disadvantaged communities contribute little to emissions yet shoulder some of the nation’s highest energy burdens and rising climate risks. SSG’s spatial analysis combined vulnerability data from state, island, county, and local sources to map where rooftop solar and tree planting overlap with these communities, pinpointing priority opportunities for equitable climate action.

Island geography creates unique emissions challenges.

As an archipelago, travel within Hawaiʻi’s islands depends on air and marine transportation. SSG’s analysis found that by adopting strategies to decarbonize aviation fuels and supporting inter-island aviation electrification, there is an emissions reduction opportunity of 59 million metric tons between 2026-2045.

Making buildings efficient is cool.

Most building decarbonization in North America centers on heating. In Hawaiʻi’s tropical climate, the primary efficiency opportunity is cooling: airtight building envelopes, efficient air conditioning, shading, and reflective roofs can cut building energy consumption 46% by 2040.

Contact Us

We can help you address the climate crisis and navigate the energy transition