Charting Washington’s path to a clean energy future

Local Energy Strategy

Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission Energy Decarbonization Pathways

Client

Washington Utilities and Transportation Commission

Population

7,800,000 (2020)

Schedule

2021-2023

Scenario Modelling

Climate Mitigation

Public Engagement (Participation)

ScenaEnergy

The Problem

Washington State is legally required to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 95% below 1990 levels by 2050, but the state’s investor-owned electric and gas utilities lacked a clear roadmap for how to get there, what the transition would cost, and who it would affect.

The Problem

What are the most feasible and equitable pathways for Washington’s utilities to help the state achieve its ambitious climate targets?

95%

reduction in greenhouse gas emissions required by 2050 (below 1990 levels)

7.8M

Washington residents depending on the electric and gas utility system

The Solution

SSG identify three viable decarbonization pathways for Washington’s utilities through comprehensive energy and emissions scenario modeling, cost-benefit and equity analysis, and public engagement. This gave regulators and legislators the evidence they needed to chart a course toward a clean, affordable, and equitable energy future.

SSG modeled three distinct pathways – Electrification, Alternative Fuels, and a Hybrid approach – simulating energy supply and demand across all 39 Washington counties from 2019 to 2050. SSG also led a robust public engagement process, consulting utilities, government agencies, environmental groups, and equity-seeking organizations to ensure the analysis reflected the concerns of Washington’s diverse communities.

The Outcome

SSG’s analysis found that in all three pathways:

>$28B

in net societal benefits compared to a business-as-planned scenario

$2.1B

in avoided health costs annually by 2050 from reduced air pollution

~$22B

in savings from avoided climate damage (Social Cost of Carbon) per pathway

*as compared to a business-as-planned scenario. See the Washington Energy Decarbonization Pathways report (2023) for more details.

Outcome

Key Takeaways

Multiple pathways, one destination

Washington’s utilities have multiple viable options. SSG’s modeling showed that three distinct decarbonization pathways (Electrification, Alternative Fuels, and a Hybrid approach) can each meet Washington’s 2030 and 2040 emissions targets. The analysis gave policymakers a clear, evidence-based framework for evaluating trade-offs across cost, risk, energy independence, and equity.

A cleaner grid benefits everyone

Reduced air pollution from phasing out fossil fuels could avoid nearly $2.1 billion in health costs annually by 2050, with the greatest benefits flowing to low-income communities and communities of color who currently bear a disproportionate share of pollution from energy infrastructure. SSG’s equity analysis helped ensure that Washington’s energy transition is a just one.

Decarbonization pays for itself

Although the energy transition requires upfront investment, every pathway SSG modeled delivers long-term savings. Across all scenarios, Washingtonians spend less on energy annually compared to a business-as-planned future, while generating between $28 billion and $44 billion in net societal benefits.

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