Our Work
Toronto Maps Climate Risks to Prioritize Adaptation Action
Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment
Toronto Maps Climate Risks to Prioritize Adaptation Action
Client
City of Toronto
Population
2,800,000 (2021)
Schedule
2024-2025
The Problem
Toronto faces growing risks from extreme heat, flooding, and other climate hazards that affect residents, infrastructure, and services. The City needed a comprehensive, citywide understanding of where risks are concentrated, which populations and systems are most vulnerable, and how to prioritize effective adaptation actions.
The Problem
Where are Toronto’s climate risks and how should adaptation be prioritized?
46
days above 30°C projected by 2080s
$940M
insured damages from Toronto flooding (2024)
The Solution
SSG worked with the City of Toronto to assess climate risks across 11 hazards and over 400 impacts, combining systems analysis with spatial modelling of extreme heat and flooding to identify where risks are highest and how targeted adaptation actions could reduce future impacts.
The assessment evaluated risks across four interconnected systems: population and economy, infrastructure, municipal services, and natural systems. Each impact was scored based on likelihood, consequence, and vulnerability, with input from over 20 City divisions and agencies.
SSG complemented this with spatial modelling of extreme heat and riverine flooding, mapping how risks vary across neighbourhoods and how they evolve under future climate conditions. The analysis also tested the effect of key adaptation measures, such as increasing tree canopy and targeted floodproofing, to demonstrate how actions can reduce exposure and damages.
The Outcome
SSG’s analysis showed
50%
potential reduction in exposure to high-risk temperatures if Toronto achieves a 40% tree canopy target*
30%
potential reduction in riverine flood damages if targeted floodproofing implemented
*targeted plantings to achieve multiple co-benefits.
See Toronto’s Climate Risks Summary Report for details.
Outcome
Key Takeaways
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