Saint John Energy Hourly Modelling

Supporting net-zero utility planning with hourly projections

Client

Saint John Energy

Population

73,000

Schedule

2023

Scenario Modelling

The Problem

Saint John Energy, a utility supplying electricity to the city of Saint John, NB, is aiming to provide net-zero power by 2030 and beyond. To succeed, it must understand what energy demand looks like in the long run.

The Problem

How much clean electricity does Saint John Energy need to supply to the community in 2045?

0

target greenhouse gas emissions

60%

expected growth in population by 2045

The Solution

SSG used ScenaHourly to prepare low, medium, and high forecasts for hourly electricity demand in Saint John through to 2045. Saint John Energy is using the information to identify how to prepare its grid for the future.

The Outcome

The project identified:

74 Gj

average per capita energy demand

13.5k

additional EVs on the road

20%

increase in electricity demand

*in 2045 relative to 2021 in the medium demand forecast.

The Outcome

Key Takeaways

Hourly Data to Plan for Demand Peaks

With hourly profiles of electricity demand for every hour of the year, Saint John Energy is able to prepare for peaks in energy demand. This way, it’s ready when rising temperatures lead to increased cooling demand in the summer, as well as at times of day when more people prefer to charge their EVs. 

Spatial Insights For Feeder-Level Planning

ScenaHourly provided analysis at the feeder level. This allowed Saint John Energy to see which areas of its network will experience more or less energy demand based on localized data on energy demand drivers, like how many heat pumps are projected to go online or how many households will have EVs.

Integration to Align With Local Plans

The analysis drew on forecasts prepared for the City of Saint John’s climate action plan, ActSJ. Saint John Energy participated in the development of ActSJ and is using the plan to inform how it can align its grid with local climate action goals.

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