How SSG is providing better data for community climate adaptation

The Town of Whitby, ON prevented over $17 billion of potential flood damage without spending a dime on flood protection barriers, storm surge gates, or other protective measures. Instead, they incorporated climate hazard modelling into their development considerations. When the modelling showed planned development areas would be right in a flood’s path, the Town shifted its plans.

Floods, wildfires, heat waves, cold snaps, and severe storms are increasing and the associated toll—in terms of deaths, damage to property, and the destruction of ecosystems—is increasing in frequency, magnitude, and cost.

As cities grapple with population growth and expand their built area, they must consider climate hazards in their urban plans and policies. Otherwise, they risk exposing their citizens to serious infrastructure damage and, in the worst cases, disability and death.

At SSG, we found that the communities we worked with needed more nuanced information about climate hazards to plan proactive responses. While they had plenty of data to analyze specific hazards, like heat waves, floods, and storms, they lacked a framework to objectively assess hazards, compare the cost of inaction to the cost of action, and identify priorities.

We’ve developed a planning approach centered around our ScenaAdaptation model to respond to this challenge. Drawing on data related to climate hazards, demographics, buildings, roads, existing hazards responses, and more, the model assesses the potential spatial impact of extreme weather events down to individual buildings. This helps pinpoint and prepare for varied risks. For example, areas where many homes are old and drafty may be more vulnerable to heat waves and cold snaps than those with newer buildings with better insulation. The model also quantifies the dollar value of potential damages to buildings and infrastructure. This information helps communities create plans and policies to minimize risks and prioritize how to allocate their resources to respond to hazards.

Avoiding flood damage in Whitby

Located on the banks of Lake Ontario, Whitby faces a growing flood risk as more frequent and severe storms are expected to cause the lake and local creeks to overflow. SSG worked with the Town to assess the potential impact of severe storms based on three scenarios: one in which Whitby maintains the same population size and infrastructure, one in which Whitby’s population grows and infrastructure develops as currently planned, and one in which Whitby takes deliberate adaptive actions while growing.

Drawing on local data related to demographics, climate, and other trends, SSG applied our ScenaAdaptation model to evaluate the cost of extreme weather events in the three scenarios. The differences were visualized through maps showing how flooding would affect each area of Whitby in each scenario. ScenaAdaptation’s analysis showed that restricting the location of new development can prevent $17 billion in future damage to homes, buildings, and infrastructure that would affect over 9,000 people. The findings informed the Whitby Climate Emergency Response Plan.

As in Kelowna, some of the most powerful climate adaptation actions overlap with measures that reduce greenhouse gas pollution. From planning when and how to develop new homes to installing renewable energy systems that are resilient to extreme weather, climate action plans can strengthen their impact by considering climate adaptation alongside greenhouse gas mitigation. We’re excited about how ScenaAdaptation can help to illuminate these synergies and other key insights to build safer and healthier communities.